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Post by ❤apple❤ on Jun 18, 2021 16:41:10 GMT -6
So this is UK data but the principle and to be honest the numbers are unlikely to be massively different in the US as our rates have been similar. I am not an expert in this other than I use public health data on a daily basis to examine the harm from certain types of crime and the principle is exactly the same. The mortality rate is the number of deaths in a given population for a particular cause between two specified dates. So for example if I wanted to look at the number of deaths from homicides in a population, I would take the number of deaths in say men under 30 and divide that number by the total number of men under 30. These numbers are usually expressed as being per 100,000 population because in a sample any smaller than that, numbers get really badly contorted. I've pulled some numbers from Public Health England's dashboard, none of this is a secret and anyone can get it, literally anyone can go to PHE's site and get the same info. (People from this forum have called places where I have worked, I am therefore very careful to stress things like that). If you are a 40 year old in the UK, the mortality rate is 22.8/100,000. That means that for every 100,000 40 year olds, 22.8 of them will die. I stopped the count at 31 January because that is the earliest date at which a 40 year old would be likely to have received both vaccines and built immunity from the second dose. It is estimated that lockdowns in the UK reduced transmission by about 2/3, so without those interventions, you're probably (and this is back of an envelope shit) looking at about 3 times that number, or somewhere in the 66 range. For someone over 80, that number increases from 22.8 to 2,376.4. For every 100,000 over 80 year olds who were alive in the UK from the start of the pandemic to January 31st, 2,376.4 of them have already died. Mortality rates cannot go down, they can only increase. The only way for a mortality rate to decrease is for the person to be found not to have died, or not to have died of COVID. Conspiracy theories notwithstanding, this isn't going to happen. So if you are over 80, and unvaccinated in the UK you have about a 2.3% chance of dying of COVID. Good odds? Maybe. Remember though that this is with lockdown and with masks and with hospitals not being overwhelmed. There were months, in particular January 2021 where the rate quadrupled. If you had no vaccine and no lockdown I don't think it is unreasonable to see that rate go up by a factor of 5 or 6. (Back of envelope, bit of a guess, based on increased transmission and lack of hospital resources). The problem with small percentages is they ignore the law of large numbers, that is to say that there are 3.5 million people over 80 in the UK, in the US you have about 12.7 million. If you're talking about losing potentially 8-10% of them to COVID, that's a million plus dead old people. With the vaccine, the risk of dying in that particular population is reduced by about 90-95%. Some people will still die. There are people in the UK who have died (I think the number is 88 as of today but I saw it earlier and now I've lost it). People who get the flu shot still die, people who wear condoms still get someone pregnant. Vaccines don't take for everyone, some people have suppressed immune systems, some people are just unlucky. Think of the population like this forum. Let's pretend that Belle, Visionari, heregoes, amulet, skoal, grumpy and aurora have all had the vaccine. Let's say it's 80% effective at preventing the illness. Honeybee comes here (I'm not picking on you, you've stated you won't have it), and she's not had the vaccine and has picked up some COVID from her church. She's one of the 1 in 3 people who has the illness with no symptoms (common in viruses, HPV often causes no symptoms for example, and people still get warts on their old chaps after sleeping with such a person). Honeybee comes in here and talks to skoal, he has had the vaccine, he doesn't get it. Then she talks to heregoes, and she doesn't get it either. All is well. Then she talks to me, and belle and grumpy. No problem, none of them get the pox. But then she talks to amulet. His vaccine didn't take as well because he maybe takes some pills that lower immune response. He gets it. A mild case probably because the vaccine will still produce an immune response. But then amulet talks to Maxx. Maxx got drunk the day of the vaccine appointment (sorry dude) and forget to go. Maxx gets sick, but before he gets sick, he talks to SK, because he likes him so much. SK gets sick, SK dies. This is why you get the damned vaccine because it is not, and has never been about you, or your response to it. It's about the guy who talks to the guy who talks to the guy who talked to you. You do not have the right to make life and death decisions about people you have not met. Brilliant!
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Bella
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Post by Bella on Jun 18, 2021 16:57:06 GMT -6
Maxx gets sick, but before he gets sick, he talks to SK, because he likes him so much. SK gets sick, SK dies.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 17:02:29 GMT -6
So this is UK data but the principle and to be honest the numbers are unlikely to be massively different in the US as our rates have been similar. I am not an expert in this other than I use public health data on a daily basis to examine the harm from certain types of crime and the principle is exactly the same. The mortality rate is the number of deaths in a given population for a particular cause between two specified dates. So for example if I wanted to look at the number of deaths from homicides in a population, I would take the number of deaths in say men under 30 and divide that number by the total number of men under 30. These numbers are usually expressed as being per 100,000 population because in a sample any smaller than that, numbers get really badly contorted. I've pulled some numbers from Public Health England's dashboard, none of this is a secret and anyone can get it, literally anyone can go to PHE's site and get the same info. (People from this forum have called places where I have worked, I am therefore very careful to stress things like that). If you are a 40 year old in the UK, the mortality rate is 22.8/100,000. That means that for every 100,000 40 year olds, 22.8 of them will die. I stopped the count at 31 January because that is the earliest date at which a 40 year old would be likely to have received both vaccines and built immunity from the second dose. It is estimated that lockdowns in the UK reduced transmission by about 2/3, so without those interventions, you're probably (and this is back of an envelope shit) looking at about 3 times that number, or somewhere in the 66 range. For someone over 80, that number increases from 22.8 to 2,376.4. For every 100,000 over 80 year olds who were alive in the UK from the start of the pandemic to January 31st, 2,376.4 of them have already died. Mortality rates cannot go down, they can only increase. The only way for a mortality rate to decrease is for the person to be found not to have died, or not to have died of COVID. Conspiracy theories notwithstanding, this isn't going to happen. So if you are over 80, and unvaccinated in the UK you have about a 2.3% chance of dying of COVID. Good odds? Maybe. Remember though that this is with lockdown and with masks and with hospitals not being overwhelmed. There were months, in particular January 2021 where the rate quadrupled. If you had no vaccine and no lockdown I don't think it is unreasonable to see that rate go up by a factor of 5 or 6. (Back of envelope, bit of a guess, based on increased transmission and lack of hospital resources). The problem with small percentages is they ignore the law of large numbers, that is to say that there are 3.5 million people over 80 in the UK, in the US you have about 12.7 million. If you're talking about losing potentially 8-10% of them to COVID, that's a million plus dead old people. With the vaccine, the risk of dying in that particular population is reduced by about 90-95%. Some people will still die. There are people in the UK who have died (I think the number is 88 as of today but I saw it earlier and now I've lost it). People who get the flu shot still die, people who wear condoms still get someone pregnant. Vaccines don't take for everyone, some people have suppressed immune systems, some people are just unlucky. Think of the population like this forum. Let's pretend that Belle, Visionari, heregoes, amulet, skoal, grumpy and aurora have all had the vaccine. Let's say it's 80% effective at preventing the illness. Honeybee comes here (I'm not picking on you, you've stated you won't have it), and she's not had the vaccine and has picked up some COVID from her church. She's one of the 1 in 3 people who has the illness with no symptoms (common in viruses, HPV often causes no symptoms for example, and people still get warts on their old chaps after sleeping with such a person). Honeybee comes in here and talks to skoal, he has had the vaccine, he doesn't get it. Then she talks to heregoes, and she doesn't get it either. All is well. Then she talks to me, and belle and grumpy. No problem, none of them get the pox. But then she talks to amulet. His vaccine didn't take as well because he maybe takes some pills that lower immune response. He gets it. A mild case probably because the vaccine will still produce an immune response. But then amulet talks to Maxx. Maxx got drunk the day of the vaccine appointment (sorry dude) and forget to go. Maxx gets sick, but before he gets sick, he talks to SK, because he likes him so much. SK gets sick, SK dies. This is why you get the damned vaccine because it is not, and has never been about you, or your response to it. It's about the guy who talks to the guy who talks to the guy who talked to you. You do not have the right to make life and death decisions about people you have not met. Be that as it may, what if a person is shamed into getting the vaccine, not sure about it, but guilted into it to "do the right thing" and then they are the one that dies. Wouldn't your statement also apply to the ones who talked them into it? I would think so. It goes both ways.
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Post by Capt. Kangaroo on Jun 18, 2021 17:13:37 GMT -6
So this is UK data but the principle and to be honest the numbers are unlikely to be massively different in the US as our rates have been similar. I am not an expert in this other than I use public health data on a daily basis to examine the harm from certain types of crime and the principle is exactly the same. The mortality rate is the number of deaths in a given population for a particular cause between two specified dates. So for example if I wanted to look at the number of deaths from homicides in a population, I would take the number of deaths in say men under 30 and divide that number by the total number of men under 30. These numbers are usually expressed as being per 100,000 population because in a sample any smaller than that, numbers get really badly contorted. I've pulled some numbers from Public Health England's dashboard, none of this is a secret and anyone can get it, literally anyone can go to PHE's site and get the same info. (People from this forum have called places where I have worked, I am therefore very careful to stress things like that). If you are a 40 year old in the UK, the mortality rate is 22.8/100,000. That means that for every 100,000 40 year olds, 22.8 of them will die. I stopped the count at 31 January because that is the earliest date at which a 40 year old would be likely to have received both vaccines and built immunity from the second dose. It is estimated that lockdowns in the UK reduced transmission by about 2/3, so without those interventions, you're probably (and this is back of an envelope shit) looking at about 3 times that number, or somewhere in the 66 range. For someone over 80, that number increases from 22.8 to 2,376.4. For every 100,000 over 80 year olds who were alive in the UK from the start of the pandemic to January 31st, 2,376.4 of them have already died. Mortality rates cannot go down, they can only increase. The only way for a mortality rate to decrease is for the person to be found not to have died, or not to have died of COVID. Conspiracy theories notwithstanding, this isn't going to happen. So if you are over 80, and unvaccinated in the UK you have about a 2.3% chance of dying of COVID. Good odds? Maybe. Remember though that this is with lockdown and with masks and with hospitals not being overwhelmed. There were months, in particular January 2021 where the rate quadrupled. If you had no vaccine and no lockdown I don't think it is unreasonable to see that rate go up by a factor of 5 or 6. (Back of envelope, bit of a guess, based on increased transmission and lack of hospital resources). The problem with small percentages is they ignore the law of large numbers, that is to say that there are 3.5 million people over 80 in the UK, in the US you have about 12.7 million. If you're talking about losing potentially 8-10% of them to COVID, that's a million plus dead old people. With the vaccine, the risk of dying in that particular population is reduced by about 90-95%. Some people will still die. There are people in the UK who have died (I think the number is 88 as of today but I saw it earlier and now I've lost it). People who get the flu shot still die, people who wear condoms still get someone pregnant. Vaccines don't take for everyone, some people have suppressed immune systems, some people are just unlucky. Think of the population like this forum. Let's pretend that Belle, Visionari, heregoes, amulet, skoal, grumpy and aurora have all had the vaccine. Let's say it's 80% effective at preventing the illness. Honeybee comes here (I'm not picking on you, you've stated you won't have it), and she's not had the vaccine and has picked up some COVID from her church. She's one of the 1 in 3 people who has the illness with no symptoms (common in viruses, HPV often causes no symptoms for example, and people still get warts on their old chaps after sleeping with such a person). Honeybee comes in here and talks to skoal, he has had the vaccine, he doesn't get it. Then she talks to heregoes, and she doesn't get it either. All is well. Then she talks to me, and belle and grumpy. No problem, none of them get the pox. But then she talks to amulet. His vaccine didn't take as well because he maybe takes some pills that lower immune response. He gets it. A mild case probably because the vaccine will still produce an immune response. But then amulet talks to Maxx. Maxx got drunk the day of the vaccine appointment (sorry dude) and forget to go. Maxx gets sick, but before he gets sick, he talks to SK, because he likes him so much. SK gets sick, SK dies. This is why you get the damned vaccine because it is not, and has never been about you, or your response to it. It's about the guy who talks to the guy who talks to the guy who talked to you. You do not have the right to make life and death decisions about people you have not met. Be that as it may, what if a person is shamed into getting the vaccine, not sure about it, but guilted into it to "do the right thing" and then they are the one that dies. Wouldn't your statement also apply to the ones who talked them into it? I would think so. It goes both ways. It's about numbers, not individuals, which is the point that I have been trying to make since fucking forever. Vaccines are public health not primary health interventions. (One relates to population health and the other to your personal medical affairs). Your risk of dying from a vaccine is entirely miniscule, about 1 in 470,000. Even in those cases, there is an absolute certainty that if someone has a serious enough reaction to a vaccine and they do die, that does not kill anyone else. This cannot be said with COVID.
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Post by Capt. Kangaroo on Jun 18, 2021 17:21:36 GMT -6
I'd also add that the numbers dying from vaccines include deaths from blood clots caused by the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine, which is not administered in the USA.
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Post by Capt. Kangaroo on Jun 18, 2021 17:46:59 GMT -6
There is a risk to taking any medication. 458 people die in the US every year from taking tylenol. NSAIDS in general, particularly ibuprofen cause 16,000 deaths a year. 2,400 people die from taking allergy pills. 420 people a year die from eating chicken and 80 people die from choking on candy.
The difference is in the impact on others. If you forgo your headache or allergy medications, you stand no chance of harming anyone else (possibly excluding the chance of a car accident while having allergies).
So the question is. Do I want to reduce the likelihood of me passing on an illness that may well kill someone further along the chain?
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Post by GrumpyOM (RIP) on Jun 19, 2021 20:03:29 GMT -6
It implies that if you don't get the shot you will die...duh. No, it doesn't. It implies that if you catch COVID, you may die.BS, I saw no mention of COVID, or catching 'anything', just you're going to die if you don't take the vaccine.
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Post by GrumpyOM (RIP) on Jun 19, 2021 20:10:00 GMT -6
I know several people that have not been vaccinated that don't live in a bubble, myself included. I thought you are home bound? I still don't live in a bubble, it's a large house with all the usual services and repairs required. And I still communicate with a lot of people. Like I stated, I know several people that have not contracted COVID and have not been vaccinated.
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Post by VisionAri on Jun 19, 2021 20:26:27 GMT -6
No, it doesn't. It implies that if you catch COVID, you may die.BS, I saw no mention of COVID, or catching 'anything', just you're going to die if you don't take the vaccine. Are you drunk or just trolling? People who know what a “risk” is know that is impossible for one to exist when the outcome is 100% certain. Therefore, the only rational thing you could infer from my comment is that I said you may die if you don’t get vaccinated (because if you don’t get vaccinated you might get sick and if you get sick you might die). But then again, when has “rational” ever been your thing?
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Bella
Administrator
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Post by Bella on Jun 19, 2021 20:30:24 GMT -6
I thought you are home bound? I still don't live in a bubble, it's a large house with all the usual services and repairs required. And I still communicate with a lot of people. Like I stated, I know several people that have not contracted COVID and have not been vaccinated. Did you ever have someone come in & vaccinate you?
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Bella
Administrator
Posts: 789
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Post by Bella on Jun 19, 2021 20:44:51 GMT -6
I still don't live in a bubble, it's a large house with all the usual services and repairs required. And I still communicate with a lot of people. Like I stated, I know several people that have not contracted COVID and have not been vaccinated. Did you ever have someone come in & vaccinate you? I guess you're not going to answer that question... Are you afraid we'll jump your sorry old ass if you didn't? You know we're concerned about you.
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Post by GrumpyOM (RIP) on Jun 20, 2021 20:17:35 GMT -6
BS, I saw no mention of COVID, or catching 'anything', just you're going to die if you don't take the vaccine. Are you drunk or just trolling? People who know what a “risk” is know that is impossible for one to exist when the outcome is 100% certain. Therefore, the only rational thing you could infer from my comment is that I said you may die if you don’t get vaccinated (because if you don’t get vaccinated you might get sick and if you get sick you might die). But then again, when has “rational” ever been your thing? Maybe if you would learn to express yourself a little better I would not have to decode what you say to get at your 'point'. As it is I would have to be drunk to understand your poor attempt to communicate.
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Post by VisionAri on Jun 20, 2021 20:18:54 GMT -6
Are you drunk or just trolling? People who know what a “risk” is know that is impossible for one to exist when the outcome is 100% certain. Therefore, the only rational thing you could infer from my comment is that I said you may die if you don’t get vaccinated (because if you don’t get vaccinated you might get sick and if you get sick you might die). But then again, when has “rational” ever been your thing? Maybe if you would learn to express yourself a little better I would not have to decode what you say to get at your 'point'. As it is I would have to be drunk to understand your poor attempt to communicate. Maybe you should work on your reading comprehension, since you’re the only one who can’t seem to understand me.
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Post by GrumpyOM (RIP) on Jun 20, 2021 20:23:46 GMT -6
Did you ever have someone come in & vaccinate you? I guess you're not going to answer that question... Are you afraid we'll jump your sorry old ass if you didn't? You know we're concerned about you. Impatient ol biddy ain't ya, I was responding to VAri. But No I could not get anyone to come to my residence to give me the vaccination. Appreciate your concern, just bought an InogenOne, model G4 which provides free flowing O2 so have no excuse now for not going to the clinic here in Hot Springs.
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Post by GrumpyOM (RIP) on Jun 20, 2021 20:26:20 GMT -6
Maybe if you would learn to express yourself a little better I would not have to decode what you say to get at your 'point'. As it is I would have to be drunk to understand your poor attempt to communicate. Maybe you should work on your reading comprehension, since you’re the only one who can’t seem to understand me. No one else gives a crap what you say, which is probably wise.
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